Tuesday, July 29, 2014

BP's share highly under performing due to Western sanctions on Russia

BP has around a 20% stake in Russian energy giant Rosneft and the sanctions against Russia due the Ukraine crisis can affect BP in future.

Sanctions against Russia is viewed as an obstacle for BP to keep it's business at normal pace. BP just posted a rise in second quarter profits. BP has around a 20% stake in Russian energy giant Rosneft and the sanctions against Russia due the Ukraine crisis can affect BP in future. BP said, "Sanctions could adversely impact our business."

BP is worried about the impact of sanctions and relationship with Rosneft. The crisis may affect the level of income, production and reserves as well as BP's investment and reputation. The company's second quarter profits is $3.2bn (£1.9bn), up from $2.4bn in the same period last year. For the second quarter, BP said higher oil production in higher-margin areas such as the Gulf of Mexico had boosted its profits. But for third quarter, the production is not expected to be high as second quarter due to the seasonal maintenance in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the planned major turnaround.
BP has around a 20% stake in Russian energy giant Rosneft and the sanctions against Russia due the Ukraine crisis can affect BP in future.


If the sanctions become more intense, there could be prohibition of exports of technologies used in the Russian Oil sector.

BP's share price is affected along with political conflicts as BP is more exposed to political situations in Russia than any of its competitors. Analysts are seeing BP's share hugely under-performing. BP's share price had risen by 2% since early June, while Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Chevron had each increased by more than 9%.

On Tuesday, BP shares were up during early trading, but later fell 1.6% to 489p because of the impact on western sanctions on Russia and it's still going down.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Russia's move to prevent itself from high inflation and low investment.

From 7.5% to 8% now. Russian interest rate has increased.
From 7.5% to 8% now. Russian interest rate has increased.
Russia is acting to prevent their economy from the risk of high inflation. The situation in Russia after sanctions from west and recent tension in Ukraine are viewed as the major factors for the probability of increment in inflation.

Since the European economy is in stress and whole Eurozone has low inflation of 0.5%, Russia is also experiencing the stress and other restrictions too. With raising pressure from the west and it's conflict with Ukraine, Russia is anticipating high rate of inflation and in order to check the  risk of high inflation Russian Central bank decided to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, or half a percent, to 8% per year. In June, core inflation grew to 7.5%, well above the bank's forecast of up to 6.5% for the year.

Analysts were not expecting such changes in the interest rate. They are aware of the vulnerability of the Russia's economy.After sanctions were implemented domestic stocks and the rouble tumbled earlier this year. Analyst are observing the concern of central bank for the potential impact.
The bank is working to reduced the inflation risk  which are caused due to a combination of factors, including, inter alia, the aggravation of geopolitical tension and its potential impact on the rouble exchange rate dynamics, as well as potential changes in tax and tariff policy. The bank point outs the main reason for inflation acceleration is the effect of the observed rouble depreciation on prices of a wide range of goods and services.

While anxious investors are pulling their money out, the exchange rate might still go down.

The consumer price growth rate increased to 7.8% in June and the bank trying to put down the consumer price growth to 4% with increased interest rate.

Russia is concerned about the money leaving from the country. Analysts view this act as  move to prevent large amount of money to leave the country.With such tension in the reason, investors are still searching for the better reason to invest.

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